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Thread: 2016 Polling

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    Administrator Mjölnir's Avatar
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    2016 Polling

    Some interesting numbers in current summary of national polls of likely voters:

    Both front runners are down in the last two weeks.

    Democratic Nomination:

    Clinton 49 (down from 58 2 weeks ago - high of 69)
    Sanders 22 (up from 18 2 weeks ago - high of 22)
    O'Malley 2 (steady in 2 weeks)
    Webb 2 (steady in 2 weeks)
    *Biden 18 (47 percent of likely democratic voters thing he should run, 49 do not)
    *Gore 10


    Quick analysis indicates that as Democratic candidates begin to drop off, many of their supporters are more likely to support Sanders or an undeclared candidate.

    Republican Nomination:

    Trump 21 (down from 25 2 weeks ago - high of 25)
    Bush 10 (down from 10 2 weeks ago - high of 17)
    Rubio 6 (steady in two weeks - high of 6)
    Kasich 3 (down from 4 2 weeks ago - high of 4)
    Fiorina 4 (up from 2 2 weeks ago - high of 4)

    Quick analysis indicates that as Republican candidates begin to drop off, many of their supporters are more likely to support Bush or Rubio

    Polling indicates if election were this week Clinton beats all Republican candidates, some by a very small margin.

    General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Clinton 51, Trump 38 (Clinton +13)
    General Election: Bush vs. Clinton Clinton 45, Bush 43 (Clinton +2)
    General Election: Rubio vs. Clinton Clinton 45, Rubio 42 (Clinton +3)
    Last edited by Mjölnir; 08-18-2015 at 03:45 AM.
    The most important six inches on the battlefield ... is between your ears.

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    Senior Member Absinthe Anecdote's Avatar
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    Just looking at the trend of past primary elections, it is easy to see that the early front runner rarely stays there.
    All behold that fancy strutting peacock, the bake sale diva...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Absinthe Anecdote View Post
    Just looking at the trend of past primary elections, it is easy to see that the early front runner rarely stays there.
    You're right. That said, I still put my money on Hillary because the "takers" far outnumber the "makers" and they also don't educate themselves on the issues. All Hillary has to do is keep promising "equality and equal pay for all."

    Don't worry fellow Conservatives, even though we'll lose, we can all still boast about how close we came to beating her. Yeah, she's President, but almost half the country hates her...so take that DEMS!

    President Cankles
    Last edited by FLAPS, USAF (ret); 08-20-2015 at 02:50 PM.

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    Administrator Mjölnir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Absinthe Anecdote View Post
    Just looking at the trend of past primary elections, it is easy to see that the early front runner rarely stays there.
    Yeah, that is almost always the rule.

    However, unless Biden gets in fast I don't see anyone upsetting Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination.
    The most important six inches on the battlefield ... is between your ears.

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    Administrator Mjölnir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FLAPS, USAF (ret) View Post
    You're right. That said, I still put my money on Hillary because the "takers" far outnumber the "makers" and they also don't educate themselves on the issues. All Hillary has to do is keep promising "equality and equal pay for all."

    President Cankles.
    The most important six inches on the battlefield ... is between your ears.

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    Senior Member Absinthe Anecdote's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mjölnir View Post
    Yeah, that is almost always the rule.

    However, unless Biden gets in fast I don't see anyone upsetting Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination.
    Some of the political analysts on CNN's, State of th Union, think he could wait until as late as December to get in the race.

    I was listening to NPR yesterday and there are rumblings and leaks from Obama's staff that he has been trying to get Elizabeth Warren to run.

    Apparently Obama doesn't want to endorse Hillary.

    I don't know how much Obama's endorsement means in the grand scheme of things, but I think it has some impact on the primaries.
    All behold that fancy strutting peacock, the bake sale diva...

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    Senior Member Absinthe Anecdote's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FLAPS, USAF (ret) View Post
    You're right. That said, I still put my money on Hillary because the "takers" far outnumber the "makers" and they also don't educate themselves on the issues. All Hillary has to do is keep promising "equality and equal pay for all."

    Don't worry fellow Conservatives, even though we'll lose, we can all still boast about how close we came to beating her. Yeah, she's President, but almost half the country hates her...so take that DEMS!

    President Cankles
    What is a "taker" and how many of them are there? I'm not sure if I've met one before. Are they easy to identify?
    All behold that fancy strutting peacock, the bake sale diva...

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    Administrator Mjölnir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Absinthe Anecdote View Post
    Some of the political analysts on CNN's, State of th Union, think he could wait until as late as December to get in the race.
    He could, right now the Iowa caucuses are 01 February, so there is not a lot of time to get a national campaign rolling. Not that missing Iowa will 'break' his chances ... usually a good showing in Iowa gets fundraising money going ... a poor showing in Iowa for the outlying candidates usually sees what fundraising they had dry up. Biden likely won't have that problem -- he is nationally recognized and has a decent campaign fund to start with.

    Quote Originally Posted by Absinthe Anecdote View Post
    I was listening to NPR yesterday and there are rumblings and leaks from Obama's staff that he has been trying to get Elizabeth Warren to run.

    Apparently Obama doesn't want to endorse Hillary.
    I have heard the same thing from many of my Democrat friends.

    Quote Originally Posted by Absinthe Anecdote View Post
    I don't know how much Obama's endorsement means in the grand scheme of things, but I think it has some impact on the primaries.
    Honestly little since they both enjoy wide support from the base. If she was a non-traditional candidate not liked by the far left (also his largest support base) then it would mean more.
    The most important six inches on the battlefield ... is between your ears.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mjölnir View Post
    Yeah, that is almost always the rule.

    However, unless Biden gets in fast I don't see anyone upsetting Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination.
    What about sanders.

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    Administrator Mjölnir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by garhkal View Post
    What about sanders.
    I see him doing well up to a point, but as the primaries go on if he cannot get past Clinton's numbers his fundraising will dry up. No money ... no campaign.

    Early primaries favor his base, as time goes on big states, with lots of delegates is not where he is doing to well at the moment.
    The most important six inches on the battlefield ... is between your ears.

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