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Thread: Promotion rates during drawdown?

  1. #11
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    Re: Promotion rates during drawdown?

    Quote Originally Posted by jpeters View Post
    I would like to see how this is going to work as well. From what I’ve read, if you have a line number you are not going to be considered for a board…but what if you get one while you’re in a board? If they decide you don’t make the cut, you just took a line number from someone else.
    The idea that someone who gets a line number and subsequently gets out or is booted out has taken a line number from someone else is false. Either you made the cutoff or you didn't. I've never understood why that myth in our promotion system still exists.

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    Senior Member Gonzo432's Avatar
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    Re: Promotion rates during drawdown?

    Quote Originally Posted by fufu View Post
    It was breifed here that billets are being cut along with the people.
    If assigned (UPMR) >authorized (UMD), getting the force down to "end strength" (AKA authorized by FYDP, Future Years Defense Program) will be a first step.

    Now, if the authorized end strength decreases, this is done programmatically. Air Staff will do this through POM, APOM or PBD (remember PBD 720?? I still have nightmares. ACC had to cut 10K). The cuts will be made in the specified fiscal year. This can be next year, out to 6 years in the future.

    With that said, PBD 720 cut the AF down to about 316K. It was SECDEF Gates who said, "Oh, 332K is about right." To be honest (I've been away from programming since 06 and retired since 07) I don't know if the FYDP was ever replaced (the 16K difference between 316K and 332K).

    Unless you are at a MAJCOM or Air Staff: the UMD will have 0s where it had 1s. As the 0s get closer, people will start not being replaced.

    If you are at a MAJCOM or Air Staff: your life would suck anyway, but it sucks more now.
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    Senior Member wxjumper's Avatar
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    Re: Promotion rates during drawdown?

    Since the cuts are supposedly spread evenly across the board as not to create the bathtub effect, promotion rates should stay the same.

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    Re: Promotion rates during drawdown?

    Quote Originally Posted by BOSS302 View Post
    Which hat, bag of bullshit, or mystery vessel of intrigue did your "squadron super" pull that information from?
    Legit? If someone else can prove wrong, please do so.

    Question came up during the TCON this morning concerning getting a line
    number for promotion. I verified with our Chief at MPS and he stated again
    that if someone gets a line number this promotion cycle, they will be pulled
    off the list. The issue comes mostly with those being selected to SSgt
    because the promotion list doesn't post until first week of August. Those
    identified to separate by 29 Sept will already be notified and on their way
    towards out processing. These SrA are the ones we need to keep an eye on.
    Make sure they are moving towards separation, yet fully informed of their
    chances to also get a line number and their options to stay in.

    ------- --------, CMSgt, USAF
    Flight Chief, XXXXXXXXXXX
    XX XXXX/XXXX, XXXXXXXX AFB
    DSN: XXX-XXXX Comm: XXX-XXX-XXXX

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    Senior Member grimreaper's Avatar
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    Re: Promotion rates during drawdown?

    Quote Originally Posted by CJSmith View Post
    Legit? If someone else can prove wrong, please do so.
    Time to s-l-o-w down...you're talking about people being on the list to be looked at compared to those actually identified to be separated...two totally different things.

    The issue comes mostly with those being selected to SSgt
    because the promotion list doesn't post until first week of August. Those
    identified to separate by 29 Sept will already be notified and on their way
    towards out processing. These SrA are the ones we need to keep an eye on.
    Make sure they are moving towards separation, yet fully informed of their
    chances to also get a line number and their options to stay in.
    Unless any of these SrA/SSgt selects are actually identified to be separated, there is no issue. Although there is the POSSIBILITY of those eligible for promotion and make it being selected for separation, I would expect that there are TONS of folks who would be separated before anyone with a line number would even come close to even being near consideration.

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    Re: Promotion rates during drawdown?

    Quote Originally Posted by grimreaper View Post
    Time to s-l-o-w down...you're talking about people being on the list to be looked at compared to those actually identified to be separated...two totally different things.



    Unless any of these SrA/SSgt selects are actually identified to be separated, there is no issue. Although there is the POSSIBILITY of those eligible for promotion and make it being selected for separation, I would expect that there are TONS of folks who would be separated before anyone with a line number would even come close to even being near consideration.
    T-h-a-n-k - y-o-u

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    Senior Member grimreaper's Avatar
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    Re: Promotion rates during drawdown?

    Quote Originally Posted by CJSmith View Post
    T-h-a-n-k - y-o-u
    There is this involuntary separation frenzy going on right now. Although Big Blue has done some really stupid things in the past, this is not the case (so far). Commanders, Chiefs, supervisors, etc should be doing more to tell troops than this is not CURRENTLY the case. HAF, for the time being, seems like like they are doing this the right way...they've, for some reason, done a piss poor way of letting people know about it. I guess it's better than the other way around though.

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    Re: Promotion rates during drawdown?

    Quote Originally Posted by wxjumper View Post
    Since the cuts are supposedly spread evenly across the board as not to create the bathtub effect, promotion rates should stay the same.
    Yep, same promotion rate, just smaller numbers of people, due to the smaller pool to select from (and the smaller need).

    Talk to anyone who was in during the 90's, when they had the "Cold War Peace Dividend" drawdown. That was hella stupidly done, but you didn't see anyone who couldn't get promoted, unless they were dumb enough to stay in a crowded career field. If you're worried about being promoted, volunteer to cross-train to a high demand career field, and you'll make rank.

    Hell, my older sister enlisted in the Navy in 1975, 2 years after the US left Viet Nam, during a much larger drawdown, but still got promoted, every time she tested (and Navy starts testing at E-4). You just have to remember that if you're suddenly finding yourself in a smaller pond (or pool of people), you need to work that much harder to become the big fish, right?

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    Re: Promotion rates during drawdown?

    Quote Originally Posted by Salty Old Dog View Post
    Yep, same promotion rate, just smaller numbers of people, due to the smaller pool to select from (and the smaller need).

    Talk to anyone who was in during the 90's, when they had the "Cold War Peace Dividend" drawdown. That was hella stupidly done, but you didn't see anyone who couldn't get promoted, unless they were dumb enough to stay in a crowded career field. If you're worried about being promoted, volunteer to cross-train to a high demand career field, and you'll make rank.

    Hell, my older sister enlisted in the Navy in 1975, 2 years after the US left Viet Nam, during a much larger drawdown, but still got promoted, every time she tested (and Navy starts testing at E-4). You just have to remember that if you're suddenly finding yourself in a smaller pond (or pool of people), you need to work that much harder to become the big fish, right?
    Actually it depends more on what kind of fish than how many there are. This year, for example, all those additional personnel on the ERB are (or should be) studying their asses off to get immunity through earning a line number. Number of testing shouldn't change too drastically, but I'd being willing to wager the cutoffs jump significantly.
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    Re: Promotion rates during drawdown?

    Quote Originally Posted by fufu View Post
    It was breifed here that billets are being cut along with the people.
    Billets are what is cut...since that is what is funded, not the actual person. I often wonder how many funded billets sit empty in the AF and just where that money gets spent exactly. It's the same for civilians. I know where I work there are numerous empty but funded civilian billets. Don't know what the money is actually being spent on.
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