PDA

View Full Version : Democrats brace against potential 2018 Senate 'disaster'



Mjölnir
09-13-2016, 12:54 PM
Politico: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/senate-2018-democrats-228055

Red-state Democrats and party strategists are already nervously looking past 2016, when they are angling to recapture the Senate, to the 2018 elections, hoping against hope that their party isn’t setting itself up for a titanic midterm backlash that could flip control of the Senate for a third time in three elections.

As difficult as the 2016 Senate map has been for Republicans, who had to defend numerous blue- and purple-state seats and could lose their majority, Democrats’ 2018 map looks practically unnavigable. The party starts with five ruby-red seats to defend: Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia. Then, Democrats have a slew of Senate seats up in traditional swing states, including Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin. If he doesn’t become vice president, Tim Kaine will also face reelection in closely divided Virginia in 2018. And if he does, a Democratic appointee could face an expensive special election in 2017 before the race for a full term the next year.

However far off it may seem, the consequences of the 2016 election are already hitting home for lawmakers preparing to defend their seats in 2018. While Democrats cheer Hillary Clinton’s lead in the presidential race right now, they are also very aware that it could lead, like clockwork, to a very bad midterm election for Senate Democrats in two years — while the slimmer chance of a Trump victory could help inoculate some of their red-state senators.
“[Democrats] have not figured out how to translate presidential success into midterm success. And even worse, this time we have a candidate who is winning by default,” said one Democratic strategist who has worked on Senate races. “It’s going to be a disaster.”

Meanwhile, Republicans are already looking ahead.

2018 is “already on the minds of Republicans," said Scott Jennings, who ran a super PAC backing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky in 2014. "We're on defense for two more months and then we go on offense for two years. Mitch McConnell could be looking at a supermajority."

Much will depend on how the winners this November decide to wield their power in the White House and on Capitol Hill. Some Democrats blame their big 2010 midterm losses on the party’s embrace of divisive policies, like cap and trade and health care reform, in the wake of President Barack Obama’s victory. Voters already have more unfavorable opinions of both Clinton and Trump than they did of Obama when he faced a midterm wipeout in 2010. And a new presidential agenda could put red-state Democrats in a tough spot immediately in 2017.

sandsjames
09-13-2016, 02:37 PM
Politico: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/senate-2018-democrats-228055

Red-state Democrats and party strategists are already nervously looking past 2016, when they are angling to recapture the Senate, to the 2018 elections, hoping against hope that their party isn’t setting itself up for a titanic midterm backlash that could flip control of the Senate for a third time in three elections.

As difficult as the 2016 Senate map has been for Republicans, who had to defend numerous blue- and purple-state seats and could lose their majority, Democrats’ 2018 map looks practically unnavigable. The party starts with five ruby-red seats to defend: Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia. Then, Democrats have a slew of Senate seats up in traditional swing states, including Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin. If he doesn’t become vice president, Tim Kaine will also face reelection in closely divided Virginia in 2018. And if he does, a Democratic appointee could face an expensive special election in 2017 before the race for a full term the next year.

However far off it may seem, the consequences of the 2016 election are already hitting home for lawmakers preparing to defend their seats in 2018. While Democrats cheer Hillary Clinton’s lead in the presidential race right now, they are also very aware that it could lead, like clockwork, to a very bad midterm election for Senate Democrats in two years — while the slimmer chance of a Trump victory could help inoculate some of their red-state senators.
“[Democrats] have not figured out how to translate presidential success into midterm success. And even worse, this time we have a candidate who is winning by default,” said one Democratic strategist who has worked on Senate races. “It’s going to be a disaster.”

Meanwhile, Republicans are already looking ahead.

2018 is “already on the minds of Republicans," said Scott Jennings, who ran a super PAC backing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky in 2014. "We're on defense for two more months and then we go on offense for two years. Mitch McConnell could be looking at a supermajority."

Much will depend on how the winners this November decide to wield their power in the White House and on Capitol Hill. Some Democrats blame their big 2010 midterm losses on the party’s embrace of divisive policies, like cap and trade and health care reform, in the wake of President Barack Obama’s victory. Voters already have more unfavorable opinions of both Clinton and Trump than they did of Obama when he faced a midterm wipeout in 2010. And a new presidential agenda could put red-state Democrats in a tough spot immediately in 2017.

Damn, dude, can't we get at least a year or so break from this shit??

Mjölnir
09-13-2016, 02:58 PM
Damn, dude, can't we get at least a year or so break from this shit??

http://mrwgifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Surely-You-Cant-Be-Serious-In-Airplane-Gif.gif

sandsjames
09-13-2016, 03:35 PM
http://mrwgifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Surely-You-Cant-Be-Serious-In-Airplane-Gif.gifI am serious...and don't call me Shirley.

garhkal
09-13-2016, 07:23 PM
Nope. Even before this seasons campaigning is done, we will start getting inundated with stuff for 2018..

MikeKerriii
09-13-2016, 10:07 PM
Politico: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/senate-2018-democrats-228055

Red-state Democrats and party strategists are already nervously looking past 2016, when they are angling to recapture the Senate, to the 2018 elections, hoping against hope that their party isn’t setting itself up for a titanic midterm backlash that could flip control of the Senate for a third time in three elections.

As difficult as the 2016 Senate map has been for Republicans, who had to defend numerous blue- and purple-state seats and could lose their majority, Democrats’ 2018 map looks practically unnavigable. The party starts with five ruby-red seats to defend: Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia. Then, Democrats have a slew of Senate seats up in traditional swing states, including Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin. If he doesn’t become vice president, Tim Kaine will also face reelection in closely divided Virginia in 2018. And if he does, a Democratic appointee could face an expensive special election in 2017 before the race for a full term the next year.

However far off it may seem, the consequences of the 2016 election are already hitting home for lawmakers preparing to defend their seats in 2018. While Democrats cheer Hillary Clinton’s lead in the presidential race right now, they are also very aware that it could lead, like clockwork, to a very bad midterm election for Senate Democrats in two years — while the slimmer chance of a Trump victory could help inoculate some of their red-state senators.
“[Democrats] have not figured out how to translate presidential success into midterm success. And even worse, this time we have a candidate who is winning by default,” said one Democratic strategist who has worked on Senate races. “It’s going to be a disaster.”

Meanwhile, Republicans are already looking ahead.

2018 is “already on the minds of Republicans," said Scott Jennings, who ran a super PAC backing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky in 2014. "We're on defense for two more months and then we go on offense for two years. Mitch McConnell could be looking at a supermajority."

Much will depend on how the winners this November decide to wield their power in the White House and on Capitol Hill. Some Democrats blame their big 2010 midterm losses on the party’s embrace of divisive policies, like cap and trade and health care reform, in the wake of President Barack Obama’s victory. Voters already have more unfavorable opinions of both Clinton and Trump than they did of Obama when he faced a midterm wipeout in 2010. And a new presidential agenda could put red-state Democrats in a tough spot immediately in 2017.

That might well happen, I think that irt is unlikely though It will not happen before the Senate Republicans get reamed in 2016, and the Republicans possibly lose the house. I seems to be they are grasping at some possible good news straws. I don't think that The Republicans will be able repair the wreckage that will be whats left of the Republican party by 2018, that would involve the Trump nuts and the traditional Republicans making some sort of peace despite having opposing answers to most core Republican concerns.

Mjölnir
09-13-2016, 10:56 PM
That might well happen, I think that irt is unlikely though It will not happen before the Senate Republicans get reamed in 2016, and the Republicans possibly lose the house. I seems to be they are grasping at some possible good news straws. I don't think that The Republicans will be able repair the wreckage that will be whats left of the Republican party by 2018, that would involve the Trump nuts and the traditional Republicans making some sort of peace despite having opposing answers to most core Republican concerns.

I don't think the House will flip in 2016, way too large of a GOP advantage there.

I think the GOP will retain the Senate, lose a seat or two, but I don't think (looking at which electoral class is up) will be a reaming.

Looking to 2018, most of the races discussed in the article are going to be hard for the Democrats because of shifts in the states. A large part of it will depend on the dirt two years of the next administration (very very likely a Clinton Administration).

MikeKerriii
09-13-2016, 11:12 PM
I don't think the House will flip in 2016, way too large of a GOP advantage there.

I think the GOP will retain the Senate, lose a seat or two, but I don't think (looking at which electoral class is up) will be a reaming.

Looking to 2018, most of the races discussed in the article are going to be hard for the Democrats because of shifts in the states. A large part of it will depend on the dirt two years of the next administration (very very likely a Clinton Administration).

I think that the question in the senate will be how badly they lose the senate not whether they will lose it or not when folks like Sen, Burr and Ayote are in real jeopardy things look bad for the Republicans.

With the House I would give the Republicans slightly better than even chances to retain the house depending onhow badly Trump gets curb-stomped ed at the polls. Since even Texas, Georgia and Arizona are within single digits I think tht the stomping is likely to be done with a very big boot.

I think that Clinton will be about as popular as Obama, and that is horribly bad news for the Republicans.

Bos Mutus
09-13-2016, 11:32 PM
I think that the question in the senate will be how badly they lose the senate not whether they will lose it or not when folks like Sen, Burr and Ayote are in real jeopardy things look bad for the Republicans.

With the House I would give the Republicans slightly better than even chances to retain the house depending onhow badly Trump gets curb-stomped ed at the polls. Since even Texas, Georgia and Arizona are within single digits I think tht the stomping is likely to be done with a very big boot.

I think that Clinton will be about as popular as Obama, and that is horribly bad news for the Republicans.

I can't quote specifics state-by-state...but my understanding is with the current district gerrymandering set-up, the GOP is pretty much a lock to hold the House for the foreseeable future.

Mjölnir
09-13-2016, 11:34 PM
I think that the question in the senate will be how badly they lose the senate not whether they will lose it or not when folks like Sen, Burr and Ayote are in real jeopardy things look bad for the Republicans.

Will see.


With the House I would give the Republicans slightly better than even chances to retain the house depending onhow badly Trump gets curb-stomped ed at the polls. Since even Texas, Georgia and Arizona are within single digits I think tht the stomping is likely to be done with a very big boot.

Don't forget the House districting setup. In states like Texas, Georgia etc. where Trump is doing exceedingly poor, districts such urban Dallas, Atlanta etc. are already represented by Democrats. Those already represented by Republicans show the GOP with an advantage. The population centers have narrowed the margin state-wide (important for the electoral college) but district by district the GOP is in a good position.


I think that Clinton will be about as popular as Obama, and that is horribly bad news for the Republicans.

I think she will win, I don't think she is going to be as popular as Obama. She is currently not as popular as Obama was 8 years ago, she won the nomination by pseudo default and many Dems are growing weary already of the issues (unfortunately that were predictable) with her campaign.

Mjölnir
09-13-2016, 11:34 PM
I think that the question in the senate will be how badly they lose the senate not whether they will lose it or not when folks like Sen, Burr and Ayote are in real jeopardy things look bad for the Republicans.

Will see.


With the House I would give the Republicans slightly better than even chances to retain the house depending onhow badly Trump gets curb-stomped ed at the polls. Since even Texas, Georgia and Arizona are within single digits I think tht the stomping is likely to be done with a very big boot.

Don't forget the House districting setup. In states like Texas, Georgia etc. where Trump is doing exceedingly poor, districts such urban Dallas, Atlanta etc. are already represented by Democrats. Those already represented by Republicans show the GOP with an advantage. The population centers have narrowed the margin state-wide (important for the electoral college) but district by district the GOP is in a good position.


I think that Clinton will be about as popular as Obama, and that is horribly bad news for the Republicans.

I think she will win, I don't think she is going to be as popular as Obama. She is currently not as popular as Obama was 8 years ago, she won the nomination by pseudo default and many Dems are growing weary already of the issues (unfortunately that were predictable) with her campaign.

efmbman
09-14-2016, 12:31 AM
She is currently not as popular as Obama was 8 years ago, she won the nomination by pseudo default and many Dems are growing weary already of the issues (unfortunately that were predictable) with her campaign.

The single biggest factor in favor of Clinton is that she is not Trump. All she should do at this point is keep her mouth shut and let Trump talk all wants. That should wrap it up nicely. However, there are the debates...

Rainmaker
09-14-2016, 01:09 AM
Rainmaker's been telling you mugs since Aug 2015 that Donald Trump will be next POTUS.......

Hillary going cankles up, on 9-11 seals the deal......

& If the bitch even makes it to election day, It won't even be close........

Turn off Anderson Cooper et.al..... before it's too late.......

Because You are being subjected to North Korean style media propaganda (Gaslighting) campaign & are in danger of literally losing your minds!.........

.........Rainmaker out//

"Gaslighting or gas-lighting is a form of psychological abuse in which a victim is manipulated into doubting their own memory, perception, and sanity. Instances may range from the denial by an abuser that previous abusive incidents ever occurred, up to the staging of bizarre events by the abuser with the intention of disorienting the victim...The term "gaslighting" has been used colloquially since the 1960s to describe efforts to manipulate someone's sense of reality. In a 1980 book on child sexual abuse, Florence Rush summarized George Cukor's 1944 film version of Gas Light, and writes, "even today the word [gaslighting] is used to describe an attempt to destroy another's perception of reality."

MikeKerriii
09-14-2016, 04:01 AM
The single biggest factor in favor of Clinton is that she is not Trump. All she should do at this point is keep her mouth shut and let Trump talk all wants. That should wrap it up nicely. However, there are the debates...

As long as she appears to be sane, the election is hers ro lose since Trummp has been unable to maintain that illuson for more tha a few hours since the primaries started. Shes a bit crooked he is totaly nuts, so she wins.