View Full Version : Global Trends 2030

Absinthe Anecdote
06-11-2015, 02:03 PM
An excerpt from the National Intelligence Council Report, Global Trends 2030

The US most likely will remain “first among equals” among the other great powers in 2030 because of its preeminence across a range of power dimensions and legacies of its leadership role. More important than just its economic weight, the United States’ dominant role in international politics has derived from its preponderance across the board in both hard and soft power. Nevertheless, with the rapid rise of other countries, the “unipolar moment” is over and Pax Americana—the era of American ascendancy in international politics that began in 1945—is fast winding down.

Rainmaker recently compared the United States to the Roman Empire in the 3rd Century. While I think that comparison is overly dramatic, I do agree that American power is in a state of decline.

What will that decline look like? How fast and how hard will we fall?

Unfortunately, we can't predicted the future, but the National Intelligence Council has been thinking about what the impact of changes we see today will have on the future.

The executive summary of Global Trends 2030 describes the report as,

"This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 15-20 years. As with the niC’s previous Global trends reports, we do not seek to predict the future—which would be an impossible feat—but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications."

This report is very long and academic in nature, but it is fascinating reading.

If you are interested in this sort of thing, I invite you to download it and we can try to discuss it here.