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garhkal
04-29-2015, 09:57 PM
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/04/29/shipping-company-says-crew-vessel-seized-by-iran-is-safe-but-motive-is-unclear/?intcmp=latestnews

Hm. First they fire on a ship near the Marshall islands, and now they seize a ship. And yet nothing is said by King Obama the first...

waveshaper2
04-30-2015, 12:25 AM
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/04/29/shipping-company-says-crew-vessel-seized-by-iran-is-safe-but-motive-is-unclear/?intcmp=latestnews

Hm. First they fire on a ship near the Marshall islands, and now they seize a ship. And yet nothing is said by King Obama the first...

Have some patience. He's following the President Reagan Persian Gulf "Tanker War" Model/ROE's. The Reagan Model/ROE's require at least 300 commercial ships to be hit by missiles, bombs, rockets, sea mines, and/or naval gunfire over a span of a minimum of 6 1/2 years before the USA can take action.

TJMAC77SP
04-30-2015, 02:43 AM
Have some patience. He's following the President Reagan Persian Gulf "Tanker War" Model/ROE's. The Reagan Model/ROE's require at least 300 commercial ships to be hit by missiles, bombs, rockets, sea mines, and/or naval gunfire over a span of a minimum of 6 1/2 years before the USA can take action.

Could you tell us some details about that? You got one number pretty close but I am unsure of the overall characterization. I believe that the period ended when the Regan administration worked out a plan where US ships escorted commercial shipping through the area.

waveshaper2
04-30-2015, 09:11 AM
Could you tell us some details about that? You got one number pretty close but I am unsure of the overall characterization. I believe that the period ended when the Regan administration worked out a plan where US ships escorted commercial shipping through the area.

The Tanker War; Folks don't seem to remember how bad it was/how long it took for the USA to get involved. Based on past history, I figured we have about 300 more ship attacks/6 1/2 years to go before the USA commits to taking any serious actions.
The Tanker War; http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/9005lessonsiraniraqii-chap14.pdf

Total Attacks on Persian Gulf Commercial Shipping; Primary methods of attack; Missile/Bombs/Rockets/Sea Mines/Naval Gunfire/etc.
1981; 5 Ships Hit. President Reagan Starts his first term.
1982; 22 Ships Hit.
1983; 16 Ships Hit.
1984; 71 Ships Hit.
1985; 47 Ships Hit.
1986; 111 Ships Hit.
1987; 179 Ships Hit. 24 July 1987 Operation Earnest Will starts. President Reagan finally takes action 2 1/2 years into his second term (6 1/2 years in office).
Operation Earnest Will; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Earnest_Will

Sample of Type ships hit from 1984 to 1987.
Oil Tanker/Product Carrier; 259 Ships Hit.
Cargo/Freighter/Combination; 52 Ships Hit.
Supply/Support; 10 Ships Hit.
Tug; 12 Tugs Hit.

Sample of a "Typical" slow month of commercial shipping attacks in the Persian Gulf (Dec 1984). By 1986 these type of attacks were happening at a rate of about 1 attack every three days and in 1987 it was about 1 attack every 2 days.

3 December; 386,000-ton Cypriot tanker Minotaru damaged by Iraqi missile on way to the Kharg Island oil terminal. Engine room set ablaze, but the fire was under control five hours after the hit.
8 December; Iranian F-4 jet fighter rocketed Kuwaiti supply boat in neutral waters off the exclusion zone imposed by Iraq around Kharg Island.
9 December; Iraqi warplane fires an Exocet missile at Bahamian-registered, 163,000-ton tanker B. T. Investor, on way to the Kharg Island oil terminal. Missile punches a hole in a port tank, just above the waterline. It fails to ignite a fire and
causes negligible damage. No crewmen were hurt.
15 December; 241,000-ton Greek tanker Ninemia heavily damaged by two Iraqi missiles on way to Kharg Island. First missile set tanker's engine room afire, killing two crewmen.
17 December; 21,000-ton Greek cargo ship Aegis Cosmic hit in a port side cargo hold, apparently by an Iraqi missile, 85 miles north of Bahrain. vessel only slightly damaged. Crew suffered no casualties. Ship continued journey.
25 December Fully loaded, 277,000-ton Indian tanker Kanchenjunga hit by Iranian planes, setting fire to vessel's bridge and control room, and wounding crewmen. Fire brought under control within a few hours. Rocket attack was carried out 70 miles northeast of Qatar, after the tanker had taken on a full load of crude oil at Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura terminal and was heading to Indiana. The ship headed instead for Dubai for repairs.
26 December 239,000-ton Spanish supertanker Aragon damaged by two rockets fired from Iranian warplanes. The tanker, which was on way to Ras Tanura to pick up load of Saudi crude destined for Spain, continued the journey.

TJMAC77SP
04-30-2015, 04:56 PM
The Tanker War; Folks don't seem to remember how bad it was/how long it took for the USA to get involved. Based on past history, I figured we have about 300 more ship attacks/6 1/2 years to go before the USA commits to taking any serious actions.
The Tanker War; http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/9005lessonsiraniraqii-chap14.pdf

Total Attacks on Persian Gulf Commercial Shipping; Primary methods of attack; Missile/Bombs/Rockets/Sea Mines/Naval Gunfire/etc.
1981; 5 Ships Hit. President Reagan Starts his first term.
1982; 22 Ships Hit.
1983; 16 Ships Hit.
1984; 71 Ships Hit.
1985; 47 Ships Hit.
1986; 111 Ships Hit.
1987; 179 Ships Hit. 24 July 1987 Operation Earnest Will starts. President Reagan finally takes action 2 1/2 years into his second term (6 1/2 years in office).
Operation Earnest Will; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Earnest_Will

Sample of Type ships hit from 1984 to 1987.
Oil Tanker/Product Carrier; 259 Ships Hit.
Cargo/Freighter/Combination; 52 Ships Hit.
Supply/Support; 10 Ships Hit.
Tug; 12 Tugs Hit.

Sample of a "Typical" slow month of commercial shipping attacks in the Persian Gulf (Dec 1984). By 1986 these type of attacks were happening at a rate of about 1 attack every three days and in 1987 it was about 1 attack every 2 days.

3 December; 386,000-ton Cypriot tanker Minotaru damaged by Iraqi missile on way to the Kharg Island oil terminal. Engine room set ablaze, but the fire was under control five hours after the hit.
8 December; Iranian F-4 jet fighter rocketed Kuwaiti supply boat in neutral waters off the exclusion zone imposed by Iraq around Kharg Island.
9 December; Iraqi warplane fires an Exocet missile at Bahamian-registered, 163,000-ton tanker B. T. Investor, on way to the Kharg Island oil terminal. Missile punches a hole in a port tank, just above the waterline. It fails to ignite a fire and
causes negligible damage. No crewmen were hurt.
15 December; 241,000-ton Greek tanker Ninemia heavily damaged by two Iraqi missiles on way to Kharg Island. First missile set tanker's engine room afire, killing two crewmen.
17 December; 21,000-ton Greek cargo ship Aegis Cosmic hit in a port side cargo hold, apparently by an Iraqi missile, 85 miles north of Bahrain. vessel only slightly damaged. Crew suffered no casualties. Ship continued journey.
25 December Fully loaded, 277,000-ton Indian tanker Kanchenjunga hit by Iranian planes, setting fire to vessel's bridge and control room, and wounding crewmen. Fire brought under control within a few hours. Rocket attack was carried out 70 miles northeast of Qatar, after the tanker had taken on a full load of crude oil at Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura terminal and was heading to Indiana. The ship headed instead for Dubai for repairs.
26 December 239,000-ton Spanish supertanker Aragon damaged by two rockets fired from Iranian warplanes. The tanker, which was on way to Ras Tanura to pick up load of Saudi crude destined for Spain, continued the journey.

Do those figures include Iraqi and Iranian ships? If so those were two countries at war with each other and I don't see what Regan could have done. How many of those ships were US flagged or had US citizens on board?

I am still confused over your characterization of Regan not doing anything when the tanker war did not exclusively affect US ships. Additionally I am not sure of the why you make a comparison of the tanker war and the seizure of a ship flagged to a country which the US has an associated state status with.

Also, didn't the war end for all intents and purposes (as I said earlier) when Regan authorized the escort of commercial vessels (regardless of nationality) through the straights?

garhkal
04-30-2015, 07:53 PM
I am still confused over your characterization of Regan not doing anything when the tanker war did not exclusively affect US ships. Additionally I am not sure of the why you make a comparison of the tanker war and the seizure of a ship flagged to a country which the US has an associated state status with.

Also, didn't the war end for all intents and purposes (as I said earlier) when Regan authorized the escort of commercial vessels (regardless of nationality) through the straights?

True, this is different imo than the "Tanker" war, which was between 2 waring nations more than anything else. THIS though is an out right act of aggression from a country we are supposed to be in 'peace talks' with. And IMO that should immediately put a halt to ANY Treaty being even considered, let alone voted on/signed etc.

waveshaper2
04-30-2015, 08:15 PM
Do those figures include Iraqi and Iranian ships? If so those were two countries at war with each other and I don't see what Regan could have done. How many of those ships were US flagged or had US citizens on board?

I am still confused over your characterization of Regan not doing anything when the tanker war did not exclusively affect US ships. Additionally I am not sure of the why you make a comparison of the tanker war and the seizure of a ship flagged to a country which the US has an associated state status with.

Also, didn't the war end for all intents and purposes (as I said earlier) when Regan authorized the escort of commercial vessels (regardless of nationality) through the straights?

I agree with most of what your saying but it seems like some folks are really spun up about this relatively minor incident. We've been down this road before and this is nothing compared to what could happen in these strategic waterways.

Flagging of ships is complicated "AKA" flying flags of convenience. There's a reason why small countries like Liberia, Marshall Islands, etc have so many ships under their flag (it's all about money and liability). 99% of these ships are owned/operated by other countries including the USA.

Some numbers;
1. NATO countries (ship flagged to countries which the US has an associated state status with); Belgium, France, Federal Republic of Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Turkey, and the United States. Total of 72 commercial ships hit.

2. Additional Countries we have mutual defense treaties with; Australia, Japan, Kuwait, Panama, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea. Total of 81 commercial ships hit.

3. Other countries (some we have treaties with)total of 203 commercial ships hit; Bahamas, China, Cyprus, India, Malta, North Korea, Pakistan, Qatar, Singapore, Sri Lanka, UAE, USSR, and Yugoslavia. Total of 203 commercial ships hit.

4. Unknown country of origin; Total of 44 commercial ships hit.

5. Iran; Total of 48 commercial ships hit.

6. Iraq; Unknown.

Tanker War Total(1981 - !987); 448 commercial ships hit.


Note; US/Iran/Iraq (Iraq didn't have many boats) War Ships hit/sunk would be another list, seized ships/crews would be another list, and casualties is yet another list.

sandsjames
04-30-2015, 08:40 PM
I agree with most of what your saying but it seems like some folks are really spun up about this relatively minor incident. We've been down this road before and this is nothing compared to what could happen in these strategic waterways.

Flagging of ships is complicated "AKA" flying flags of convenience. There's a reason why small countries like Liberia, Marshall Islands, etc have so many ships under their flag (it's all about money and liability). 99% of these ships are owned/operated by other countries including the USA.

Some numbers;
1. NATO countries (ship flagged to countries which the US has an associated state status with); Belgium, France, Federal Republic of Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Turkey, and the United States. Total of 72 commercial ships hit.

2. Additional Countries we have mutual defense treaties with; Australia, Japan, Kuwait, Panama, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea. Total of 81 commercial ships hit.

3. Other countries (some we have treaties with)total of 203 commercial ships hit; Bahamas, China, Cyprus, India, Malta, North Korea, Pakistan, Qatar, Singapore, Sri Lanka, UAE, USSR, and Yugoslavia. Total of 203 commercial ships hit.

4. Unknown country of origin; Total of 44 commercial ships hit.

5. Iran; Total of 48 commercial ships hit.

6. Iraq; Unknown.

Tanker War Total(1981 - !987); 448 commercial ships hit.


Note; US/Iran/Iraq (Iraq didn't have many boats) War Ships hit/sunk would be another list, seized ships/crews would be another list, and casualties is yet another list.

Two countries that are not us involved in a scuffle. We should definitely get involved because that always helps.

TJMAC77SP
04-30-2015, 08:45 PM
I agree with most of what your saying but it seems like some folks are really spun up about this relatively minor incident. We've been down this road before and this is nothing compared to what could happen in these strategic waterways.

Flagging of ships is complicated "AKA" flying flags of convenience. There's a reason why small countries like Liberia, Marshall Islands, etc have so many ships under their flag (it's all about money and liability). 99% of these ships are owned/operated by other countries including the USA.

Some numbers;
1. NATO countries (ship flagged to countries which the US has an associated state status with); Belgium, France, Federal Republic of Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Turkey, and the United States. Total of 72 commercial ships hit.

2. Additional Countries we have mutual defense treaties with; Australia, Japan, Kuwait, Panama, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea. Total of 81 commercial ships hit.

3. Other countries (some we have treaties with)total of 203 commercial ships hit; Bahamas, China, Cyprus, India, Malta, North Korea, Pakistan, Qatar, Singapore, Sri Lanka, UAE, USSR, and Yugoslavia. Total of 203 commercial ships hit.

4. Unknown country of origin; Total of 44 commercial ships hit.

5. Iran; Total of 48 commercial ships hit.

6. Iraq; Unknown.

Tanker War Total(1981 - !987); 448 commercial ships hit.


Note; US/Iran/Iraq (Iraq didn't have many boats) War Ships hit/sunk would be another list, seized ships/crews would be another list, and casualties is yet another list.

Ok, I think I get it now. You responded to the anti-Obama hyperbole over the seizure of a ship by engaging in a little anti-Regan hyperbole of your own.

waveshaper2
04-30-2015, 08:56 PM
Ok, I think I get it now. You responded to the anti-Obama hyperbole over the seizure of a ship by engaging in a little anti-Regan hyperbole of your own.

That was my point.

waveshaper2
04-30-2015, 09:16 PM
Here's a more recent gage of our reaction to Iranian aggression against one of our most loyal coalition partners.

The 2007 HMS Cornwall incident; Iranian seizure of 15 Royal Navy Personnel.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Iranian_seizure_of_Royal_Navy_personnel

waveshaper2
05-01-2015, 12:02 PM
Caution (now some of the nuance); So this latest round of Persian Gulf brinkmanship got it start from an incident involving a commercial ship flagged (registered) in the country of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. It's wise to understand how these "potential" conflicts get there genesis before this type of seemingly minor incident/information gets forgotten/buried by escalating events.

Flagging of commercial ships is very complicated; Flagging is nothing more than Port of Registry of a countries ship "AKA" flag of convenience.

MV Maersk Tigris/ship seized by Iran (complicated);
Crew; No U.S. citizens.
Flag/Port of registry; Republic of the Marshall Islands.
Ship Owner; Wide Golf Ltd (Luxembourg).
Ship Managed by; Singapore - based Rickmers Shipmanagement.
Ship Chartered by; Maersk (Danish Shipping Company).
Ship containers owned by; Maersk (Danish Shipping Company).
Ship cargo; Unknown.

Worlds top three countries for commercial flagged/registered ships - 2014;

1. Panama; 7,068 ships/Gross Registered Tonnage (millions) 355/Foreign Owned Tonnage 99.83%.
2. Liberia; 3,126 ships/Gross Registered Tonnage (millions) 205/Foreign Owned Tonnage 99.99%.
3. Republic of the Marshall Islands (population 68,000); 2027 ships/Gross Registered Tonnage (millions) 152/Foreign Owned Tonnage 99.70%.
Note; The USA is way down the list; 850 ships/Gross Registered Tonnage (millions) 11.8/Foreign Owned Tonnage 28.30%.

Excerpt; Flag of convenience is the business practice of registering a merchant ship in a sovereign state different from that of the ship's owners, and flying that state's civil ensign on the ship. Ships are registered under flags of convenience to reduce operating costs or avoid the regulations of the owner's country. The closely related term open registry is used to describe an organization that will register ships owned by foreign entities.

Excerpt; The term "flag of convenience" has been in use since the 1950s, and it refers to the civil ensign a ship flies in order to indicate its country of registration or flag state. A ship operates under the laws of its flag state, and these laws are used if the ship is involved in a case under admiralty law.

Enough for now/time to switch back to my normal "oblivious" post Gulf of Tonkin mode.