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View Full Version : force management cliff notes from CMSAF All Call..



ihatenonners
03-15-2014, 02:16 AM
- the AF chose a strategy of uncertainty with tons of time to prepare over a strategy of certainty with little time to prepare

- the involuntary boards are still on track to happen

- waiting for certain legislative decisions to be made

- new info about the voluntary programs will be released next week. or something.

- 70k number is nonsense. About 11k volunteered, and only about 5k of those people were actually eligible

Big Blue
03-15-2014, 03:50 AM
Assuming nothing about promotion percentages with FY 15 out now?

wxjumper
03-15-2014, 04:25 AM
- the AF chose a strategy of uncertainty with tons of time to prepare over a strategy of certainty with little time to prepare

- the involuntary boards are still on track to happen

- waiting for certain legislative decisions to be made

- new info about the voluntary programs will be released next week. or something.

- 70k number is nonsense. About 11k volunteered, and only about 5k of those people were actually eligible

So only 5K volunteered huh? If it is only that many, what is the Air Force waiting for? It doesn't matter what legislative changes will be made, the Air Force will at LEAST cut that many people no matter what happens. Sounds like to me that the Air Force is waiting to see if they can get away with cutting enough people through involuntary means which is a lot cheaper for them. May allow them to buy one more F-35.

bcoco14
03-15-2014, 05:49 AM
So only 5K volunteered huh? If it is only that many, what is the Air Force waiting for? It doesn't matter what legislative changes will be made, the Air Force will at LEAST cut that many people no matter what happens. Sounds like to me that the Air Force is waiting to see if they can get away with cutting enough people through involuntary means which is a lot cheaper for them. May allow them to buy one more F-35.

I'm with you. I'm very, very skeptical of that 5K number. That one guy that posted in your TERA thread said a MAJCOM command chief said it was 3K. So again we are getting conflicting numbers being reported to the field. If 5K really is the number then why the hold up? You're right, there is no reason to "strategically delay" anything. And why hold up the VSP if it's only 5K? That's a clean kill for getting rid of people and the .25 extra for the VSP is a drop in the bucket when looking at the big picture. I read somewhere that they might not notify VSP applications until May 1. Honestly, IMO they should be approving all VSPs BEFORE even looking at TERA if they have money in mind.

Now this is just me thinking. I bet they got a shit ton of pilots for VSP, I would even say that if that 5K number is the actual number, then 2K of them are probably pilots. Now they are like crap we can't let all these pilots out. The other thing I was thinking is that they are focusing of the QFRB guys first because that is the first board. It decreases the amount of people that need to be looked at and saves time. I can get behind that. However, it doesn't give them an excuse to put everything else on hold. They owe it to everyone to give as much time as possible to plan for their futures.

On a side note I did hear today that the 3 star at AFPC who directed the strategic hold was fired for making that decision on his own without even informing the CSAF. I really hope this is true.

ihatenonners
03-15-2014, 06:07 AM
So only 5K volunteered huh? If it is only that many, what is the Air Force waiting for? It doesn't matter what legislative changes will be made, the Air Force will at LEAST cut that many people no matter what happens. Sounds like to me that the Air Force is waiting to see if they can get away with cutting enough people through involuntary means which is a lot cheaper for them. May allow them to buy one more F-35.

if the AF is being truthful, the hold up is probably due to the uncertainty about the future of the AFSCs many of those volunteers may have come from. If a lot of A-10 personnel clicked the button for example, they are not going to be able to process those applications until they know for sure their budget proposal of getting rid of the A-10 is actually going to pass congress.

ihatenonners
03-15-2014, 06:11 AM
I'm with you. I'm very, very skeptical of that 5K number. That one guy that posted in your TERA thread said a MAJCOM command chief said it was 3K. So again we are getting conflicting numbers being reported to the field. If 5K really is the number then why the hold up? You're right, there is no reason to "strategically delay" anything. And why hold up the VSP if it's only 5K? That's a clean kill for getting rid of people and the .25 extra for the VSP is a drop in the bucket when looking at the big picture. I read somewhere that they might not notify VSP applications until May 1. Honestly, IMO they should be approving all VSPs BEFORE even looking at TERA if they have money in mind.

Now this is just me thinking. I bet they got a shit ton of pilots for VSP, I would even say that if that 5K number is the actual number, then 2K of them are probably pilots. Now they are like crap we can't let all these pilots out. The other thing I was thinking is that they are focusing of the QFRB guys first because that is the first board. It decreases the amount of people that need to be looked at and saves time. I can get behind that. However, it doesn't give them an excuse to put everything else on hold. They owe it to everyone to give as much time as possible to plan for their futures.

On a side note I did hear today that the 3 star at AFPC who directed the strategic hold was fired for making that decision on his own without even informing the CSAF. I really hope this is true.

you dont know what a random MAJCOM chief may have said. that's a rumor from a stanger on the internet. notice how these rumors never have names behind them. but we KNOW the CMSAF said 5k. everybody wants transparency but then they actually get it they cling to the conspiracies of the grapevine anyway. go figure.

bcoco14
03-15-2014, 07:26 AM
you dont know what a random MAJCOM chief may have said.that's a rumor from a stanger on the internet. notice how these rumors never have names behind them

Thanks for the concern but I did do my research on this and that included finding out where this was said and talking to people that attended. I have no reason to question the content of that message at this point. Nice try though.




but we KNOW the CMSAF said 5k. everybody wants transparency but then they actually get it they cling to the conspiracies of the grapevine anyway. go figure.

Actually, he said 11K+, but I'm still even skeptical on that number. Even though he said that 6K wasn't eligible. I.E. they moved the goal post at the last second. This is MY theory, no grape vine, no tin foil hat wearing. I think I have made all that clear in my posts on this subject.

ihatenonners
03-15-2014, 09:02 AM
Actually, he said 11K+, but I'm still even skeptical on that number. Even though he said that 6K wasn't eligible. I.E. they moved the goal post at the last second. This is MY theory, no grape vine, no tin foil hat wearing. I think I have made all that clear in my posts on this subject.


i can actually buy the goal post theory. i find it hard to believe that 50% of the people who clicked the button didnt understand the simple rules of eligibility. but then again, 11k is still well short of the 18k they need, so why move the goal posts? I think we can all at least agree the 70k rumor was 100% fiction though.

imported_UncommonSense
03-15-2014, 11:17 AM
i can actually buy the goal post theory. i find it hard to believe that 50% of the people who clicked the button didnt understand the simple rules of eligibility. but then again, 11k is still well short of the 18k they need, so why move the goal posts? I think we can all at least agree the 70k rumor was 100% fiction though.

The goal posts did indeed get moved. For my AFSC, when the initial matrix came out, SSgts were eligible. Eight of those eligible from my section pushed the button. A couple weeks later, when the new matrix was released, SSgt was off and all eight received ineligible emails. Also, on another forum, a bunch of pilots were getting ineligible emails a month after applying as well. Take that for what it's worth.

FLAPS, USAF (ret)
03-15-2014, 11:43 AM
If 5K really is the number then why the hold up?

Perhaps the wrong mix of eligibles applied? For example, you can have 100 eligibles from an AFSC apply, but of that you only need to cut 15.

sandsjames
03-15-2014, 11:48 AM
Any chance the hold up has anything to do with Russia moving into Ukraine? Just seems kind of strange that they were gung ho...then put the breaks on pretty quickly.

FLAPS, USAF (ret)
03-15-2014, 12:18 PM
Any chance the hold up has anything to do with Russia moving into Ukraine? Just seems kind of strange that they were gung ho...then put the breaks on pretty quickly.

I highly doubt it. The Obama administration is well aware of our current and emerging strategic threats, but chooses the path to dismantle our military nonetheless.

In either case, isn't it a shame that the real reasons for halting/pausing force shaping are so unclear that we're left guessing? If I was new to the AF I'd think twice about re-enlisting. Way too much uncertainty with pre-Xmas force shaping plans, pauses, restarts, moving goal posts, bills passed in Congress, then bills passed to undo previous bills, etc. How can anyone handle working for an organization that can't be trusted to follow through with promises or expectations that were set upon initial employment?

Mr. Happy
03-15-2014, 02:17 PM
I knew that 70K number was BS the first time I heard of it. The AF should of officially killed that rumor, but instead chose silence.

imported_KnuckleDragger
03-15-2014, 02:36 PM
- the AF chose a strategy of uncertainty with tons of time to prepare over a strategy of certainty with little time to prepare

- the involuntary boards are still on track to happen

- waiting for certain legislative decisions to be made

- new info about the voluntary programs will be released next week. or something.

- 70k number is nonsense. About 11k volunteered, and only about 5k of those people were actually eligible

So 5k are eligible. Are we talking approx 20k non-vols?

wxjumper
03-15-2014, 02:38 PM
I knew that 70% number was BS the first time I heard of it. The AF should of officially killed that rumor, but instead chose silence.

I think you mean 70K. But I agree, I knew that was a BS number but I thought the rumor was at least based on some fact. like that there were a lot more applicants then expected. Maybe 20K or so. But 5K? That means the total opposite, that very few have volunteered for the programs. That just doesn't jive with how AFPC and the AF has been acting the last couple months.

ske4za
03-15-2014, 07:57 PM
I'm with you. I'm very, very skeptical of that 5K number. That one guy that posted in your TERA thread said a MAJCOM command chief said it was 3K. So again we are getting conflicting numbers being reported to the field. If 5K really is the number then why the hold up? You're right, there is no reason to "strategically delay" anything. And why hold up the VSP if it's only 5K? That's a clean kill for getting rid of people and the .25 extra for the VSP is a drop in the bucket when looking at the big picture. I read somewhere that they might not notify VSP applications until May 1. Honestly, IMO they should be approving all VSPs BEFORE even looking at TERA if they have money in mind.

Now this is just me thinking. I bet they got a shit ton of pilots for VSP, I would even say that if that 5K number is the actual number, then 2K of them are probably pilots. Now they are like crap we can't let all these pilots out. The other thing I was thinking is that they are focusing of the QFRB guys first because that is the first board. It decreases the amount of people that need to be looked at and saves time. I can get behind that. However, it doesn't give them an excuse to put everything else on hold. They owe it to everyone to give as much time as possible to plan for their futures.

On a side note I did hear today that the 3 star at AFPC who directed the strategic hold was fired for making that decision on his own without even informing the CSAF. I really hope this is true.

The same 3 star in this article?

http://www.af.mil/News/ArticleDisplay/tabid/223/Article/473737/air-force-continues-force-management-programs.aspx


Air Force leaders announced a resumption of all force management programs March 15 following a recently discussed strategic pause.

“After providing senior leadership a chance to evaluate the programs and assess our early progress, we are ready to resume immediate processing of voluntary applications in most categories and begin notifying Airmen of their status,” said Lt. Gen. Sam Cox, the Air Force deputy chief of staff for manpower, personnel and services. “We expect to receive final approval authorities early next week for a select few categories, like rated and health professions, at which point we will be actively processing all voluntary applications.”

Notifications to Airmen could start as early as next week, the general added.

Cox also confirmed previously-announced force management boards would proceed as currently scheduled. The eligible populations for those boards will remain the same with the exception of a small group of about 500 Airmen who will no longer be eligible for the current voluntary or involuntary programs. Those individuals will be personally notified of their eligibility status by the Air Force Personnel Center.

“Resuming the current programs on the previously announced schedules and under the same basic criteria means minimal changes for our Airmen,” Cox said.

One item assessed during the pause was the pace of the programs and whether or not the Air Force could achieve required reductions on the original schedule. The analysis revealed the need to include a second round of programs in 2015.

“Airmen who were eligible for programs during the first round in 2014 will not be eligible for the retention boards in 2015, unless they have specific negative quality force indicators,” Cox said.

Ensuring well-performing Airmen are not subject to multiple involuntary programs is key, according to the general.

Details on the nature and timing of the second round of programs will be announced in the coming weeks.

The general continues to encourage eligible officers and enlisted Airmen to apply for the Temporary Early Retirement Authority and Voluntary Separation Pay programs. The current TERA application window remains open to March 26 and the VSP application window is open to May 1.

For more information on force management, force shaping, reduction in force and other personnel programs, go to the myPers Web site at https://mypers.af.mil.

UH1FE
03-15-2014, 08:37 PM
The CMSAF and Gen Welsh have lost all credibility. Till I see a screen shot from the database of the actual numbers they are lying in my eyes.

Pueblo
03-16-2014, 12:34 AM
- 70k number is nonsense. About 11k volunteered, and only about 5k of those people were actually eligible

If that announcement was made at a time when packets weren't being processed, how would they have an accurate count of the number of packets received?

TSat75
03-16-2014, 03:17 AM
you dont know what a random MAJCOM chief may have said. that's a rumor from a stanger on the internet. notice how these rumors never have names behind them. but we KNOW the CMSAF said 5k. everybody wants transparency but then they actually get it they cling to the conspiracies of the grapevine anyway. go figure.

I understand the sentiment - anonymous and everything. I recently had to get a new name just to remain anonymous...so I get it.

However, I was not the only one in the theater. I will always stand behind what I write. If it is a rumor, I'll say so. If it is something I know first hand, I'll say it. If I'm just relaying - I'll say it. But I think it is important to relay - especially when briefings come from places like the MAJCOM CCC - just so we can compare notes. I take these boards as a place for us to talk AF. The command I was speaking of is AMC - and the briefing was the intro brief from our new CCC (and if anyone has ever heard her speak - I gotta tell you, she sounds like a straight shooter). The base was at Scott - the HQ base...where she sits. So it wasn't some flash tour where she was speaking to some random base. She had the AMC A1 Functional sitting in the audience - who she referred to during this question.

I have no inside information - but I thought it was important for those of us who care about the future state of the AF (personnel wise) to know what is being said at different levels to the masses. But I would think that the AF CMSAF and the MAJCOM CCCs would be on the same page. Obviously not. In this case, you have to take the word of the CMSAF (until we get something down from the SECAF) - and his reasoning sounds plausible...everyone hitting the button, but many who are not eligible.

Sounds to me like there is a lot of confusion - even at the AF and MAJCOM levels.

bcoco14
03-16-2014, 06:18 AM
Perhaps the wrong mix of eligibles applied? For example, you can have 100 eligibles from an AFSC apply, but of that you only need to cut 15.

I see what you're getting at. But, using your example they could have just approved the 15 and told the other 85 they were denied then move on to the next group. I still don't see the need for a hold up.

bcoco14
03-16-2014, 06:26 AM
Any chance the hold up has anything to do with Russia moving into Ukraine? Just seems kind of strange that they were gung ho...then put the breaks on pretty quickly.

I'm with FLAPS on this. I don't think Russia is going to play a part in any of this. Hell, they invaded more of Ukraine outside of Crimea today and then they announced that the are once again moving forward with applications. At this point Russia is a zero factor.

bcoco14
03-16-2014, 06:30 AM
The same 3 star in this article?

http://www.af.mil/News/ArticleDisplay/tabid/223/Article/473737/air-force-continues-force-management-programs.aspx

I'm not sure. I wasn't at work on Friday so I heard through a friend that was at work. 70% of my Sq is officers so I don't know where the info came from. I just hope it's a true statement. Somebody needs to be fired over the handling of this debacle.

imported_Shove_your_stupid_meeting
03-16-2014, 02:29 PM
About 11k volunteered, and only about 5k of those people were actually eligible


Christ. Sounds like the people that volunteer for special duty assignments 3 months after PCSing.

imported_KnuckleDragger
03-16-2014, 03:22 PM
Christ. Sounds like the people that volunteer for special duty assignments 3 months after PCSing.

Negative. Some qualifications were changed after applications were submitted.

imported_Shove_your_stupid_meeting
03-16-2014, 07:55 PM
Negative. Some qualifications were changed after applications were submitted.

No kidding? What qualifications were those?

imported_KnuckleDragger
03-16-2014, 08:04 PM
No kidding? What qualifications were those?

If i can believe random internet posts...


The goal posts did indeed get moved. For my AFSC, when the initial matrix came out, SSgts were eligible. Eight of those eligible from my section pushed the button. A couple weeks later, when the new matrix was released, SSgt was off and all eight received ineligible emails. Also, on another forum, a bunch of pilots were getting ineligible emails a month after applying as well. Take that for what it's worth.

imported_Shove_your_stupid_meeting
03-16-2014, 10:22 PM
If a bunch of SSgts were applying for TERA, it would make sense to deny them. It also wouldn't shock me if folks intelligible for retirement applied for it.

imported_UncommonSense
03-17-2014, 09:56 AM
If a bunch of SSgts were applying for TERA, it would make sense to deny them. It also wouldn't shock me if folks intelligible for retirement applied for it.

It wasn't for TERA. It was for VSP

MrMiracle
03-17-2014, 12:09 PM
I would just like to say, that after reading the title of this thread I really love the phrase "Force Management Cliff". Describes the situation quite well.

edoc118
03-17-2014, 12:14 PM
I dunno if it would be enough to account for ~6k people, but I know of at least 2 people that applied for VSP even though they were going to the QFRB. So I'm sure at least some of those ineligibles were people at risk of getting kicked out hoping they could sneak by and get paid to separate.

AF2017
03-17-2014, 03:53 PM
I hate to call BS on this, but this really is BS. Only 11k volunteered? So, 11k volunteers made AFPC come to a screetching halt? Only 5k were eligible? Really?? So AFRC have had to triple their TAPS classes and some bases are booked up till July, but only 11k volunteered? This doesn't pass the common sense test. What do expect the Chief to stand-up there and say? "Well we had 20% volunteer (70k+) but we don't have a morale problem in the Air Force." I would be believe a 10% volunteer (VSP/TERA) and have more respect for him if he really told us the truth.

TSat75
03-17-2014, 04:45 PM
Well, I know at our base, a lot of folks were signing up for TAP because they knew they were on the list of non-vol programs starting up. I only know a couple that actually pushed the button for a voluntary out (TERA). But there are a lot of folks who are already thinking they will be gone (20+ year folks without CCAF or Course 14).

Also, I guess it wasn't the sheer number of volunteers that brought AFPC to their knees - it was A1 moving the numbers on a daily basis (which AFSC's/Year groups, etc...) that caused the TIMEOUT to be called. Who knows.

Jamethon
03-17-2014, 05:19 PM
I hate to call BS on this, but this really is BS. Only 11k volunteered? So, 11k volunteers made AFPC come to a screetching halt? Only 5k were eligible? Really?? So AFRC have had to triple their TAPS classes and some bases are booked up till July, but only 11k volunteered? This doesn't pass the common sense test. What do expect the Chief to stand-up there and say? "Well we had 20% volunteer (70k+) but we don't have a morale problem in the Air Force." I would be believe a 10% volunteer (VSP/TERA) and have more respect for him if he really told us the truth.

Think of it like this:

The 25k number they originally came up with wasn't "the first 25k people to apply get out." It was staggered by career field and rank. Even if this mythical 70k rumor that has not been verified by ANYONE were true, it wouldn't cause AFPC to "come to a screeching halt." They haven't done that at all. They aren't approving packages, which they weren't doing before this started anyways. There would be too many variables to figure out what requirements each of these people qualify for or don't.

Besides, to be honest, how many people do YOU know who have applied? I know that only 6 people in my group applied. I know that I asked the command chief about these rumors and he told me only 300 people on base applied. I know that TAPS classes have probably tripled because, you know, a lot of people are probably preparing for the inevitable. There are also QFRB people who are going to get the axe.

Think about it. You want to believe a rumor you heard from someone who heard from someone who knows someone at AFPC. But then, every time you call AFPC you get false information anyways. The big joke is that no one at AFPC knows what they are doing, but you will trust fifth person information from some airman who works there? It's kind of comical, this rumor.

Class5Kayaker
03-20-2014, 02:27 PM
Latest article in the AF Times has Lt Gen Cox (AF Personnel Chief) quoted as saying a little more than 10K applied with half ineligble:


Cox told Air Force Times the Air Force has so far received a little more than 10,000 applications for early retirement, voluntary separation or other voluntary programs. Roughly half of those applications are ineligible, he said. Some may not have enough years of service to qualify for TERA, for example, or may be in career fields that are already undermanned and would be further weakened if their separation or retirement was approved, Cox said. Those airmen also will not be involuntarily separated, he said.

http://www.airforcetimes.com/article/20140320/CAREERS/303200051/Confusion-continues-over-TERA-VSP-application-approvals

ske4za
03-20-2014, 08:02 PM
Not usually one to post memes on this forum... but I saw this today. It would have been much true if it were actually 70k.

https://scontent-b-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/t1.0-9/1497612_843426725684593_57496557_n.jpg