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imported_KnuckleDragger
01-22-2014, 08:03 PM
Thoughts on how promotion rates will be affected during the drawdown.

Do you think 14E6/14E7 will be greatly affected? They will be released before most decisions are finalized for the boards.

Chief_KO
01-22-2014, 09:02 PM
Interesting question and I don't know the answer, but here are some things to consider:
Is the AF cutting positions (billets) or just personnel (bodies)?
If the billets are not being reduced, theoretically promotion rates could increase...
If billets are being reduced as well as the bodies, promotion rates should remain about the same...
Remember that promotion rates are based on vacancies or projected vacancies in that next rank.

Interesting times indeed.

jpeters
01-22-2014, 09:04 PM
I would like to see how this is going to work as well. From what I’ve read, if you have a line number you are not going to be considered for a board…but what if you get one while you’re in a board? If they decide you don’t make the cut, you just took a line number from someone else.

Chief_KO
01-22-2014, 09:15 PM
I think the AF will use one of two methods to resolve those special situations:
Magic 8-Ball
or
Rock/Paper/Scissors/Lizard/Spock

TSat75
01-22-2014, 09:23 PM
I think the AF will use one of two methods to resolve those special situations:
Magic 8-Ball
or
Rock/Paper/Scissors/Lizard/Spock

The secret is out. The man behind curtain...

CJSmith
01-22-2014, 09:36 PM
I would like to see how this is going to work as well. From what I’ve read, if you have a line number you are not going to be considered for a board…but what if you get one while you’re in a board? If they decide you don’t make the cut, you just took a line number from someone else.

Not sure how official it is, but we had a email forwarded to us from our Sq Super saying anyone selected in the 14 cycle would be immediately pulled from any board. Anyone else receive the same?

BOSS302
01-22-2014, 09:47 PM
Not sure how official it is, but we had a email forwarded to us from our Sq Super saying anyone selected in the 14 cycle would be immediately pulled from any board. Anyone else receive the same?

Which hat, bag of bullshit, or mystery vessel of intrigue did your "squadron super" pull that information from?

fufu
01-22-2014, 10:51 PM
Interesting question and I don't know the answer, but here are some things to consider:
Is the AF cutting positions (billets) or just personnel (bodies)?
If the billets are not being reduced, theoretically promotion rates could increase...
If billets are being reduced as well as the bodies, promotion rates should remain about the same...
Remember that promotion rates are based on vacancies or projected vacancies in that next rank.

Interesting times indeed.

It was breifed here that billets are being cut along with the people.

Bohica
01-22-2014, 11:14 PM
Which hat, bag of bullshit, or mystery vessel of intrigue did your "squadron super" pull that information from?

I've heard that same info from our MPF people when they did their briefings about the review boards.

CJSmith
01-22-2014, 11:17 PM
Which hat, bag of bullshit, or mystery vessel of intrigue did your "squadron super" pull that information from?

When I get to work in the am, I'll paste the email in here.

imported_MERC8401
01-23-2014, 12:29 AM
I would like to see how this is going to work as well. From what I’ve read, if you have a line number you are not going to be considered for a board…but what if you get one while you’re in a board? If they decide you don’t make the cut, you just took a line number from someone else.

The idea that someone who gets a line number and subsequently gets out or is booted out has taken a line number from someone else is false. Either you made the cutoff or you didn't. I've never understood why that myth in our promotion system still exists.

Gonzo432
01-23-2014, 01:52 AM
It was breifed here that billets are being cut along with the people.

If assigned (UPMR) >authorized (UMD), getting the force down to "end strength" (AKA authorized by FYDP, Future Years Defense Program) will be a first step.

Now, if the authorized end strength decreases, this is done programmatically. Air Staff will do this through POM, APOM or PBD (remember PBD 720?? I still have nightmares. ACC had to cut 10K). The cuts will be made in the specified fiscal year. This can be next year, out to 6 years in the future.

With that said, PBD 720 cut the AF down to about 316K. It was SECDEF Gates who said, "Oh, 332K is about right." To be honest (I've been away from programming since 06 and retired since 07) I don't know if the FYDP was ever replaced (the 16K difference between 316K and 332K).

Unless you are at a MAJCOM or Air Staff: the UMD will have 0s where it had 1s. As the 0s get closer, people will start not being replaced.

If you are at a MAJCOM or Air Staff: your life would suck anyway, but it sucks more now.

wxjumper
01-23-2014, 04:55 AM
Since the cuts are supposedly spread evenly across the board as not to create the bathtub effect, promotion rates should stay the same.

CJSmith
01-23-2014, 11:35 AM
Which hat, bag of bullshit, or mystery vessel of intrigue did your "squadron super" pull that information from?

Legit? If someone else can prove wrong, please do so.


Question came up during the TCON this morning concerning getting a line
number for promotion. I verified with our Chief at MPS and he stated again
that if someone gets a line number this promotion cycle, they will be pulled
off the list. The issue comes mostly with those being selected to SSgt
because the promotion list doesn't post until first week of August. Those
identified to separate by 29 Sept will already be notified and on their way
towards out processing. These SrA are the ones we need to keep an eye on.
Make sure they are moving towards separation, yet fully informed of their
chances to also get a line number and their options to stay in.

------- --------, CMSgt, USAF
Flight Chief, XXXXXXXXXXX
XX XXXX/XXXX, XXXXXXXX AFB
DSN: XXX-XXXX Comm: XXX-XXX-XXXX

grimreaper
01-23-2014, 11:48 AM
Legit? If someone else can prove wrong, please do so.

Time to s-l-o-w down...you're talking about people being on the list to be looked at compared to those actually identified to be separated...two totally different things.


The issue comes mostly with those being selected to SSgt
because the promotion list doesn't post until first week of August. Those
identified to separate by 29 Sept will already be notified and on their way
towards out processing. These SrA are the ones we need to keep an eye on.
Make sure they are moving towards separation, yet fully informed of their
chances to also get a line number and their options to stay in.

Unless any of these SrA/SSgt selects are actually identified to be separated, there is no issue. Although there is the POSSIBILITY of those eligible for promotion and make it being selected for separation, I would expect that there are TONS of folks who would be separated before anyone with a line number would even come close to even being near consideration.

CJSmith
01-23-2014, 11:55 AM
Time to s-l-o-w down...you're talking about people being on the list to be looked at compared to those actually identified to be separated...two totally different things.



Unless any of these SrA/SSgt selects are actually identified to be separated, there is no issue. Although there is the POSSIBILITY of those eligible for promotion and make it being selected for separation, I would expect that there are TONS of folks who would be separated before anyone with a line number would even come close to even being near consideration.

T-h-a-n-k - y-o-u

grimreaper
01-23-2014, 12:11 PM
T-h-a-n-k - y-o-u

There is this involuntary separation frenzy going on right now. Although Big Blue has done some really stupid things in the past, this is not the case (so far). Commanders, Chiefs, supervisors, etc should be doing more to tell troops than this is not CURRENTLY the case. HAF, for the time being, seems like like they are doing this the right way...they've, for some reason, done a piss poor way of letting people know about it. I guess it's better than the other way around though.

Salty Old Dog
01-28-2014, 02:07 PM
Since the cuts are supposedly spread evenly across the board as not to create the bathtub effect, promotion rates should stay the same.

Yep, same promotion rate, just smaller numbers of people, due to the smaller pool to select from (and the smaller need).

Talk to anyone who was in during the 90's, when they had the "Cold War Peace Dividend" drawdown. That was hella stupidly done, but you didn't see anyone who couldn't get promoted, unless they were dumb enough to stay in a crowded career field. If you're worried about being promoted, volunteer to cross-train to a high demand career field, and you'll make rank.

Hell, my older sister enlisted in the Navy in 1975, 2 years after the US left Viet Nam, during a much larger drawdown, but still got promoted, every time she tested (and Navy starts testing at E-4). You just have to remember that if you're suddenly finding yourself in a smaller pond (or pool of people), you need to work that much harder to become the big fish, right?

imported_DannyJ
01-28-2014, 05:57 PM
Yep, same promotion rate, just smaller numbers of people, due to the smaller pool to select from (and the smaller need).

Talk to anyone who was in during the 90's, when they had the "Cold War Peace Dividend" drawdown. That was hella stupidly done, but you didn't see anyone who couldn't get promoted, unless they were dumb enough to stay in a crowded career field. If you're worried about being promoted, volunteer to cross-train to a high demand career field, and you'll make rank.

Hell, my older sister enlisted in the Navy in 1975, 2 years after the US left Viet Nam, during a much larger drawdown, but still got promoted, every time she tested (and Navy starts testing at E-4). You just have to remember that if you're suddenly finding yourself in a smaller pond (or pool of people), you need to work that much harder to become the big fish, right?

Actually it depends more on what kind of fish than how many there are. This year, for example, all those additional personnel on the ERB are (or should be) studying their asses off to get immunity through earning a line number. Number of testing shouldn't change too drastically, but I'd being willing to wager the cutoffs jump significantly.

BRUWIN
01-28-2014, 08:24 PM
It was breifed here that billets are being cut along with the people.

Billets are what is cut...since that is what is funded, not the actual person. I often wonder how many funded billets sit empty in the AF and just where that money gets spent exactly. It's the same for civilians. I know where I work there are numerous empty but funded civilian billets. Don't know what the money is actually being spent on.

Juggs
01-28-2014, 09:11 PM
I would like to see how this is going to work as well. From what I’ve read, if you have a line number you are not going to be considered for a board…but what if you get one while you’re in a board? If they decide you don’t make the cut, you just took a line number from someone else.

The didn't take a line number from somebody else. The other person simply didn't make it. Maybe that person should've tested better, studied more.

imported_KnuckleDragger
01-28-2014, 10:50 PM
The didn't take a line number from somebody else. The other person simply didn't make it. Maybe that person should've tested better, studied more.

I would be pissed if I was #1 non selectee, and a bunch of line numbers were thrown out.

Big AF doen't care what people score on the tests/WAPs. They have a set amount they want promoted. Who am I, to not let them promote that set amount of people?

Measure Man
01-28-2014, 10:53 PM
The idea that someone who gets a line number and subsequently gets out or is booted out has taken a line number from someone else is false.

no, it isn't.


Either you made the cutoff or you didn't. I've never understood why that myth in our promotion system still exists.

It's because the cutoff is determined by the score of the last person they promote.

So, for example....there are 10 eligibles...and the promotion rate is 20%. The 10 are racked and stacked...they determine they need to select 2 people....they go down the list and pick the top 2...the score of the 2nd person IS the cutoff score, if that person isn't there, they'd go to the next person and his score would be the cutoff score.

If that person knew they were getting out, so purposely took a dive (but remained eligible)...then that next person would have been selected and his score would have been the cutoff.

Now, depending on how the numbers work out, if that person bails and becomes ineligible...then there are only 9 eligibles instead of 10....there, still might be 2 selected (3rd persons score is cutoff), or there might be only 1 selected and the cutoff score would actually rise up the top guy's score.

Gonzo432
01-29-2014, 12:16 AM
Billets are what is cut...since that is what is funded, not the actual person. I often wonder how many funded billets sit empty in the AF and just where that money gets spent exactly. It's the same for civilians. I know where I work there are numerous empty but funded civilian billets. Don't know what the money is actually being spent on.

Military and civilian billets are funded very different. Mil is carved in stone; Civ pay dollars come from O&M funds. Comparing funding civilian positions to funding spare parts in hindsight wasn't the best example to use. The SES at the table had a seizure. Then again, making an SES have a seizure by answering a question was one of the highlights of my tour at HQ ACC.

giggawatt
01-29-2014, 03:10 AM
Here's a scenario for ya. E-6/7 testing occurs Feb-March. Results for E-7 come out in May. Results for E-6 come out in June. The ERB meets in June. You would think that results for Tech would be release well before the board so all those with line numbers would be exempt from the board. Here's the question. What about those that are deployed or otherwise have to test out of cycle? Will they meet the board before being able to test? Most likely, I would think. Suppose they don't get retained but then get a line number. What happens then?

Dickie
01-29-2014, 05:27 PM
Military and civilian billets are funded very different. Mil is carved in stone; Civ pay dollars come from O&M funds. Comparing funding civilian positions to funding spare parts in hindsight wasn't the best example to use. The SES at the table had a seizure. Then again, making an SES have a seizure by answering a question was one of the highlights of my tour at HQ ACC.

I started typing before I saw Gonzo's post. What he said. :)

grimreaper
01-30-2014, 04:53 PM
Here's a scenario for ya. E-6/7 testing occurs Feb-March. Results for E-7 come out in May. Results for E-6 come out in June. The ERB meets in June. You would think that results for Tech would be release well before the board so all those with line numbers would be exempt from the board. Here's the question. What about those that are deployed or otherwise have to test out of cycle? Will they meet the board before being able to test? Most likely, I would think. Suppose they don't get retained but then get a line number. What happens then?

Given what criteria they will be using for the board, I wouldn't think that there would be very many people who fit those negative performance indicators that would actually be selected for promotion. I would liken it to MSgt's testing for SMSgt...it's those people who get 270 board scores who are going to be the one's shown the door and they never had a chance in hell of making it anyway. I can tell you that in my career field, we had nearly 20 percent of eligible MSgt's get a 270 board last year. If someone does happen to get promoted, I would hope Big Blue would retain that person and the whammie would fall on the next person on the list.

Juggs
01-30-2014, 07:29 PM
I would be pissed if I was #1 non selectee, and a bunch of line numbers were thrown out.

Big AF doen't care what people score on the tests/WAPs. They have a set amount they want promoted. Who am I, to not let them promote that set amount of people?

Only person you would have to be pissed at is yourself for not studying hard enough.

Juggs
01-30-2014, 07:31 PM
Military and civilian billets are funded very different. Mil is carved in stone; Civ pay dollars come from O&M funds. Comparing funding civilian positions to funding spare parts in hindsight wasn't the best example to use. The SES at the table had a seizure. Then again, making an SES have a seizure by answering a question was one of the highlights of my tour at HQ ACC.

Nothing is ever carved in stone. The gov can change shit on a whim.

imported_KnuckleDragger
01-31-2014, 04:35 AM
Only person you would have to be pissed at is yourself for not studying hard enough.

It's not a pass/fail test. The cutoff is determined by HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE NEEDED IN THE NEW RANK. If some of those become ineligible/can't promote/leave, then the AF does not get as many promotees that it deemed necessary. Normally this is no big deal, becausee it happens onesies/twosies, and people just suck it up. With these FM programs, there could be a fair amount of disruption.

Maybe you will understand, when promotion rates plummet...and it is either impossible to make the cutoff, or you need like 90s.

Juggs
01-31-2014, 03:51 PM
It's not a pass/fail test. The cutoff is determined by HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE NEEDED IN THE NEW RANK. If some of those become ineligible/can't promote/leave, then the AF does not get as many promotees that it deemed necessary. Normally this is no big deal, becausee it happens onesies/twosies, and people just suck it up. With these FM programs, there could be a fair amount of disruption.

Maybe you will understand, when promotion rates plummet...and it is either impossible to make the cutoff, or you need like 90s.

No way, it's not pass/fail? Oh wait, it's meet or does not meet....the cutoff,

Again, it's not the AFs fault folks didn't put in the additional effort to score better on a test. It isn't the individual with a line number that walks you didn't score above the cutoff.

Here is another tidbit of info for you. I don't care about the promotion rates. Want to know why? I'm out!!!

Pssst, I also took my line number for E6 with me. OOOh I'm such an evil doer.

Wow scary. Score 90s on two tests that pertain to your job? The horror. Expecting you to know that shit!!

giggawatt
02-02-2014, 05:15 AM
I saw a transcript of a town hall meeting at AFPC. Maybe you've seen it. One of the questions was the one I asked earlier. It would seem that deployed members will have the opportunity to test and make rank prior to seperation actions being taken. Never has the pressure to get promoted been so high.